Wednesday, August 01, 2007

Arbitrage opportunities and Traffic Jams......

Yesterday I was enroute to forum for watching a movie (what else than "Shankardada zindabad")... I observed a simple phenomenon.. sth that everyone sees in a traffic jam...
You always see bikes zipping through the gaps between cars.The driver behind the wheel watches it until he's pissed off and closes the gap...

Aribtrage is a similar phenomenon in the financial world. Ok for ppl not so financially inclined and challenged by jargon arbitrage refers to an opportunity for making a riskless profit..for example assume that Red chilli rates are higher in US than in India (even after including the transportation costs), then for an arbitraguer it makes more sense to buy chilli in India and sell in US...Now u might say what the heck...this is the fundamental principle of business. Everyone makes money only through spreads or differentials caused due to information asymmetry. Arbitrage is slightly more complex in the sense that you deal in contracts (futures,forwards and options if u want the MBA jargon..) instead of actual underlying... OK too much of fin gyaan.. Let me get back to what i wanted to say.....

So arbitrage opportunites are like those gaps in traffic..the bike guys being the arbitrageurs...The opportunity window exists so long as the person behind the wheel is not pissed off.. and what drives him crazy.. too much of exploitation of the chance

(jyada chance pe dance marenge log tho usse gussa tho ayega hi na...)..and he closes off the gap..

Those who got past in the window make money.. others look for alternative gaps :)
The truck or lorry driver is the one providing such an opportunity.. it can be closed by the car or truck guy ( in which case its like markets responding to the opportunity to close the window) or might be a traffic cop..(ok this does not happen in real life....)..if i were to draw a parallel to a regulator traffic cop seemed to be the only actor there :)

PS: For the fin studs.. please forgive me for simplifying arbitrage ( I hope i got it right).. I know its ur bread and butter...par abhi main to bachcha hoon.. A se apple hi boloonga na....Arbitrage thodi hi boloonga....

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